Bankroll Betting Systems Pt. 2

Going right into the systems that many sports bettors use.

Flat Betting – if you wager $100 per game, all your games have to be played at $100 per game to be considered a user of a “pure” flat betting system. Reason I use the word pure is because I have talked to guys over the years that say they use the flat betting system but when they explain it – they have made adjustments of there own due to hot/cold streaks – so really they were just using their own system and not using the flat betting system.

Pros: very good system using -110 odds only and if you are hitting 6 out of every 10 bets – your bankroll will get huge.

Cons: losing streaks of 3 or more games hurts the average player sticking with this system for instance if it’s football season and on Thursday night you go 0-3 down $330 and you win on Friday, you will enter the huge Saturday card down $230 .., so you need the first 3 early game just to show a $70 profit. Any profit is good – however 3-0 is 100% and bettors will still play that afternoon and you have Sunday too. To Stick with this system is hard going into the Monday night game down several hundred dollars because you can only wager $100 per bet, meaning you now have to bet both side and total and parlay… My opinion is it may be a good way to start off with and ride it If you are hot, but hard to overcome a cold streak and most guys can’t stick to this system.

Kelly Criterion System also known as the Kelly Bet, Kelly strategy or Kelly formula. This system was created in 1956 by J.L Kelly jr.

The Kelly Criterion system is considered a great way to bet both straight bets and parlays. I advise you to search this system online and make your own decision. This system is not only used by sports bettors but by stock investors, horse racing handicappers and highly endorsed by guys like Warren Buffet and Bill Gross. The one system I have not knowingly used myself, main reason we should maybe all learn a little more on it before making a grade on it. I will say a key factor is the Kelly system factors in the probability of winning and losing each bet over a span of time and it can give you an idea on where your bankroll could be if you use it correctly. And would give you a worst case senecio at how much money would be in your bankroll after 1 month, 8 weeks or 6 months etc.. Also when doing a search you will need to also check out the Kelly calculator for both straight wagers and parlays.

Chase systems – once again a good system if you have availability of funds to hold you over during a cold steak. This system originally was for example to bet a certain team and to double up on that team if they lost first game, hard to do in football due to one game a week and factoring in the bye weeks or chasing a team on a losing streak as the season ends. What do you do – chase that team a year later?

Basically the chase system was used to bet on baseball, since teams play multiple games weekly.

The system as I stated has several versions. The most common one that works with lots of cash and patience is to bet for example $100 on a team Monday lets use at -110 and your goal is to make $100 per chase. If your team won the chase is over and you start again with another team at x amount odds to win $100 and so on. Let’s say your team -110 (or total) lost on Monday, you do not have to chase that team or total and really do not have to wait till Tuesday as you can play any play at any odds as your game number 2 of the chase – lets say you pick a favorite of -150 you will now have to get your $110 back, so at -150 you will now have to risk $240 to win $160… If it wins the chase is over and you are good and next chase is risk based on odds to win $100… BUT if your 2nd wager lost you are now down $350 and you will eventually have to wager 1k or more to make back money lost and the $100 profit you are chasing. A possible 4 or 5 game losing streak could wipe out your entire season.

Newest version has a loss limit of three games, which is a disaster in the making! Many will see this and at first thought say that sounds good as my highest risk will be x amount. But that risk is now gone – right? So do you start a new chase for the x amount? No
Because that would defeat the loss limit of 3 games so basically you have to hit 1 out of 3 bets for only 33.3% easy right? Well if you only hit 33% for a year you are done no matter the system because over the long haul and after 1 loss the odds grow heavily against you. Because to win a $100 chase after a loss means you MUST now go 100% on your picks. So you can not look at it as “all I have to do is hit 1 out of 3 for 33.3%”… The reality is this system will need a very high winning percentage – my guess 75% or 2 out of every 3 bets to win over the long haul and if you are hitting 75% why are you chasing? Some will argue that I’m wrong, yes you will hit game #1 a certain percent of the time, and of course you will have winning steaks of 3-5 games or more! But you will be in many 2 game losing streaks that will force a 100% game #3 win and for each 3 game losing streak that chase money is gone, and at unknown amounts that will be more or less based on who you bet on in game #1 … If for example the Yankees -200 was your first game and lost, and a heavily favorite as your 2nd play would force a huge wager to win a profit of $100 and resulting in why you would really need 75% longterm to guarantee profits using this system.

Flat bettors need 52.38% to profit at -110 odds and a chase bettor with a 3 loss limit will need IMO 75% or more.. But could make it work at 33.3% if all your game 3’s resulted into a win and of course losing the first two games. Maybe the percent is not 75% but you will need it to be after a few 3 game losing streaks, but the biggest question is will your longest losing streak be only 3 games? The odds vs. the money you will need to make up will force you to hit at a higher percentage. Several 4 or 5 game losing streaks the number gets higher, and in reality you could lose 7 or 8 in a row or more that would destroy the bankroll and increase the needed winning percentage. If you win 2 out of EVERY 3 bets (75%) then this is what you need. Buy why chase? You are only chasing because you feel you are not going to hit even 60% of your games and if you factor the ROR your going to have to hit 60+% or better to say the least.

Two more systems will be covered in part 3 the final two systems are IMO the best.

More Later
Tim

Football packages available starting at $99 we also have $84 packages at hot cappers report this package is baseball and football combined.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s