Bankroll Betting Systems Pt. 2

Going right into the systems that many sports bettors use.

Flat Betting – if you wager $100 per game, all your games have to be played at $100 per game to be considered a user of a “pure” flat betting system. Reason I use the word pure is because I have talked to guys over the years that say they use the flat betting system but when they explain it – they have made adjustments of there own due to hot/cold streaks – so really they were just using their own system and not using the flat betting system.

Pros: very good system using -110 odds only and if you are hitting 6 out of every 10 bets – your bankroll will get huge.

Cons: losing streaks of 3 or more games hurts the average player sticking with this system for instance if it’s football season and on Thursday night you go 0-3 down $330 and you win on Friday, you will enter the huge Saturday card down $230 .., so you need the first 3 early game just to show a $70 profit. Any profit is good – however 3-0 is 100% and bettors will still play that afternoon and you have Sunday too. To Stick with this system is hard going into the Monday night game down several hundred dollars because you can only wager $100 per bet, meaning you now have to bet both side and total and parlay… My opinion is it may be a good way to start off with and ride it If you are hot, but hard to overcome a cold streak and most guys can’t stick to this system.

Kelly Criterion System also known as the Kelly Bet, Kelly strategy or Kelly formula. This system was created in 1956 by J.L Kelly jr.

The Kelly Criterion system is considered a great way to bet both straight bets and parlays. I advise you to search this system online and make your own decision. This system is not only used by sports bettors but by stock investors, horse racing handicappers and highly endorsed by guys like Warren Buffet and Bill Gross. The one system I have not knowingly used myself, main reason we should maybe all learn a little more on it before making a grade on it. I will say a key factor is the Kelly system factors in the probability of winning and losing each bet over a span of time and it can give you an idea on where your bankroll could be if you use it correctly. And would give you a worst case senecio at how much money would be in your bankroll after 1 month, 8 weeks or 6 months etc.. Also when doing a search you will need to also check out the Kelly calculator for both straight wagers and parlays.

Chase systems – once again a good system if you have availability of funds to hold you over during a cold steak. This system originally was for example to bet a certain team and to double up on that team if they lost first game, hard to do in football due to one game a week and factoring in the bye weeks or chasing a team on a losing streak as the season ends. What do you do – chase that team a year later?

Basically the chase system was used to bet on baseball, since teams play multiple games weekly.

The system as I stated has several versions. The most common one that works with lots of cash and patience is to bet for example $100 on a team Monday lets use at -110 and your goal is to make $100 per chase. If your team won the chase is over and you start again with another team at x amount odds to win $100 and so on. Let’s say your team -110 (or total) lost on Monday, you do not have to chase that team or total and really do not have to wait till Tuesday as you can play any play at any odds as your game number 2 of the chase – lets say you pick a favorite of -150 you will now have to get your $110 back, so at -150 you will now have to risk $240 to win $160… If it wins the chase is over and you are good and next chase is risk based on odds to win $100… BUT if your 2nd wager lost you are now down $350 and you will eventually have to wager 1k or more to make back money lost and the $100 profit you are chasing. A possible 4 or 5 game losing streak could wipe out your entire season.

Newest version has a loss limit of three games, which is a disaster in the making! Many will see this and at first thought say that sounds good as my highest risk will be x amount. But that risk is now gone – right? So do you start a new chase for the x amount? No
Because that would defeat the loss limit of 3 games so basically you have to hit 1 out of 3 bets for only 33.3% easy right? Well if you only hit 33% for a year you are done no matter the system because over the long haul and after 1 loss the odds grow heavily against you. Because to win a $100 chase after a loss means you MUST now go 100% on your picks. So you can not look at it as “all I have to do is hit 1 out of 3 for 33.3%”… The reality is this system will need a very high winning percentage – my guess 75% or 2 out of every 3 bets to win over the long haul and if you are hitting 75% why are you chasing? Some will argue that I’m wrong, yes you will hit game #1 a certain percent of the time, and of course you will have winning steaks of 3-5 games or more! But you will be in many 2 game losing streaks that will force a 100% game #3 win and for each 3 game losing streak that chase money is gone, and at unknown amounts that will be more or less based on who you bet on in game #1 … If for example the Yankees -200 was your first game and lost, and a heavily favorite as your 2nd play would force a huge wager to win a profit of $100 and resulting in why you would really need 75% longterm to guarantee profits using this system.

Flat bettors need 52.38% to profit at -110 odds and a chase bettor with a 3 loss limit will need IMO 75% or more.. But could make it work at 33.3% if all your game 3’s resulted into a win and of course losing the first two games. Maybe the percent is not 75% but you will need it to be after a few 3 game losing streaks, but the biggest question is will your longest losing streak be only 3 games? The odds vs. the money you will need to make up will force you to hit at a higher percentage. Several 4 or 5 game losing streaks the number gets higher, and in reality you could lose 7 or 8 in a row or more that would destroy the bankroll and increase the needed winning percentage. If you win 2 out of EVERY 3 bets (75%) then this is what you need. Buy why chase? You are only chasing because you feel you are not going to hit even 60% of your games and if you factor the ROR your going to have to hit 60+% or better to say the least.

Two more systems will be covered in part 3 the final two systems are IMO the best.

More Later

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Bankroll Betting Systems

This subject will be debated more times than who will actually win the upcoming Super Bowl.

Finding the best longterm winning betting system is debated 365 days a year by someone. Below I will do my best and describe some of the different sports betting systems out there and only you know how you play the games that ReeceRoberts and myself provide here at Underground Sports Connection

I also want to quickly point out before moving forward in this discussion with my opinion before you decide on how to find a system that will make you money. I have tried all of the systems at one time in my life and from experience they all work if you have the money to lose and the picks are winning. However many times a player has to use his money to take care of personal matters,expenses or emergencies. And then the chasing begins and the stress sits in creating more losses and eventually the player blames the system and begins a new one. We as sports bettors naturally expect to win – but the truth is we need to be more prepared for the unavoidable losses that are part of what we do. We all hear that the break even point of winning money betting games ATS is 52.38% however that number is the smallest possible percentage a gambler has to reach to make the smallest possible ROI and only if all the games you bet are -110 odds. Sometimes we buy points resulting in betting games that are -115 or -120 and now the 52.38% has risen to a higher minimum with a loss.

Last thing to understand that each sport you bet has to be viewed different, for example you have been betting the NBA and not buying points, each play you wagered on was at -110 odds and you are hitting 54% of your plays. I do not need a calculator to tell you that you are making a decent return and should be happy with yourself. Problem here as gamblers 54% does not look to sexy, but to a honest monitored handicapper it’s decent because reality proves that a much higher percent of gamblers and handicappers fall below the Mendoza line so to speak. Part two of this example is NBA is over and you have some cash and want to bet MLB. You must now know that basically most of the systems we will be discussing are no good when it comes to wagering on MLB baseball, because bets will not always be -110 odds. So another debate will now enter the mix, winning percentage vs. positive money. I will stand firm and say hands down winning percentage does not matter when betting baseball however too many consecutive losses will hurt worse. So basically I’m saying that anyone who bets just favorites will get destroyed and people who only bet underdogs will also not make it betting MLB games. So common sense, discipline and proper money management has to take over as top priority. So no better point to introduce several betting systems,some pros and cons on each.

Part 2 of this will be up later today.

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Tim (underground original)

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Big MLB card tonight as I have 3 late West Coast games and the Tigers-Redsox winner to start the day..

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Nolan Ryan vs. Josh Hamilton

Nolan Ryan criticizing Josh Hamilton on a Texas radio show has me flabbergasted to say the least. Now I’m a huge fan of Nolan Ryan and I feel that Ryan should be able to have the green light to criticize any pitcher on the planet. But to be the CEO of the Texas Rangers and to basically call out Josh Hamilton on a sports talk radio show IMO was way out of line. To say Hamilton is giving up at bats is foolish for anyone who would be in a position to question Josh’s style of hitting, but for your boss to call you out in public and question your hitting philosophy must feel like a slap in the face. No one would ever question Nolan Ryan if he said something like the Brewers bullpen sucks! Seriously this should never have been said – but if it was a jab to get Hamilton fired up and hitting – I hope it works. Like I said I’m a Nolan Ryan fan so not gonna slam him too much – just feel it was out of line. But in closing, I will say that if Nolan wants his Rangers to one day be world series champions he will need the bat of Josh Hamilton. Winning cures all ills – but in house spats and disputes made public are always the last thing you want to see and hear from any team in any sport.


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Jim Thome – MLB Free Picks

Congratulations to Jim Thome of the Baltimore Orioles as he hit his first homer as a Oriole against his old team Cleveland Indians in a ballpark where Thome has hit more homers than any other player in MLB. Thome passed Sammy Sosa on the all time home run leader board.

I have my Saturday early games handicapped and i’m ready to roll and have a awesome Saturday! I wish you guys all the best with your handicapping as well.

Anyone wanting the $2.70 package go get it now at Hot Cappers

More updates later


Cody Ross – Underdog’s Win too

Cody Ross WOW can you say American League Player of the Week? 3 Home Runs in two days and 9 RBI’s (all 3 run homers). I love to give props to those who deserve them.

Props go out to ReeceRoberts as he has had a solid profitable month here at Underground Sports Connection – since July 1st Reece has produced 41.5 positive units and doing this using a mixture of money line favorites, Run line favorites for + money, totals and parlays. Nice job RR

I played 4 underdogs on Friday (knowing that 2-2 would profit) I expected as always a 4-0 day, however it looked like a great shot at a very nice 3-1 day…, then the Arizona bullpen fucked that up! Small profit for me add in Reece’s profit a nice day for Team Underground. Point is Underdogs win too and they do so each day in MLB and it is very important in knowing the right spots and when to use them.

Bad month for me overall – but a couple of winning days back to back and taking it one day at a time and sooner than later I will catch fire like always and make up ground quick…

lot of MLB left so this weekend would be a great time to join Team Underground and get both of our selections daily. Check out Hot Cappers Report for easy sign up page.

More updates later – let’s Win!!!!
Tim (underground original)