I am always open to change and one of the toughest things to do as a handicapper is not always making the tough decisions on picking the games, it to me is money management.
At one time I was one of the purest and always worked for the high winning percentage and made all wagers for the same amount just hoping to win over 53% of my bets. As the years went on the game has changed, the players are smarter and the odds makers are smarter. The usual -3 (-110) is now at times -3 (-120) and the -7 (-110) at times now can be -7 (-125) and so on. Making the reachable 53% has showed less and less profit as the years went on.
I have toyed with many different systems to make the wagers equal more to adjust to the extra juice we are now forced to play with. But let’s get real, how many guys play a game for 500* units or like some of the guys 100,000* per unit games?
I have put together a new system that counts * units for wins and takes away * units with the vig but in a simple but yet realistic format.
I have an example of yesterdays card to show exactly how this system works:
30* Houston Texans -4 (Winner) +30
90* Over 38 Bengals/Texans (Winner) +90
45* New Orleans Saints -10.5 (Winner) +45
85* Over 60 Saints/Lions (Winner) +85
55* SMU -4 (Winner) +55
80* Over 47 SMU/Pitt (Lost) -88
Notice first the record was 5-1 for 83% and 83% would have won you money no matter what system you used. To calculate how well we did on the money side, all you do is some simple math:
30+90+45+85+55 = +305
80+8 (vig) = -88
+305-88 = +217
Ok you all get that part, but the question I get is “how much money should 1* equal? That is something you will have to decide. If you are a small player for example $1 per star (*) would have netted you +$217 on the games. If you wanted to go $100 per (*) the same games would had netted you +$21,700. But let’s get real no one should go $100 per (*) but that is the math and those are the results. My best advise to you is to sit down with a piece of paper and calculator and factor in what percent of your bankroll you are willing to risk versus the amount of plays I have for that card and find out a system that will work for you based on my rating system.
As far as I know this is the only format of its kind used by a sports service and I hope that all of you find this interesting and useful. Underground Sports Connection will continue to roll with the times and try to stay on top of the game.
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