Money Management & Why it is so Important.

I often hear handicappers and sports bettors brag about 80% or higher winning percentages.  You always see the guy’s that are ranked in the top 10 at sports monitoring sites mainly due to a high winning percentage, but sometimes things can be very deceptive.  Case and point being, on many sites a guy can start the week out and go 5-0 and be ranked #1 in the nation with a 100% winning percentage, but only added a few hundred dollars to his clients bankroll, and on the other hand a service could be 4-1 for example and be up way more than the person that is hitting 100%.  That is just a small simple example of what we will be getting into today.

Money management is the key period.  I have done every system imaginable and had good and bad results using them all.  I have done the system where you bet every game the same amount, I have used the 1* to 5* format, I have tried the system where you go 100* to 500* and like I said all of them have good points and bad points.  But I continued my search for something better – something smarter and safer.  I currently use a system that is based on actual dollars instead of just units.  All my fulltime clients get the plays daily with the units listed.  At the website on my past results page you only see the plays as I do not list the units I use on each game, however if you go to my monitors I use to verify my selections you will noticed how well I’m doing based on money won instead of a high winning percentage.

The number one reason most gamblers lose is their lack of discipline and bad money management.  If you continue to chase money after losses – you will lose long-term.  If you double up after a big win just because you now have extra money to play with – you will lose long-term.  If you feel like you must have action going every hour on a busy Saturday or Sunday – you will lose long-term.  If you continue to bet parlays and teasers on every betting session – you too will lose long-term.  If you tell yourself “I can not win betting the way I have been” and I need a handicapper – but jump from one handicapper to another and back and forth trying to catch only the winning streaks – you will lose long-term.

You ask how do I win then?  There is a way, but it is up to you.  I’m not pushing my product and telling you that I’m the only person with the winning formula as that would be a lie, but I do win way more than I lose and after a loss I just keep on keeping on and focus on the next game.  With my rotating unit scale – betting never gets boring, for instance if you bet $50 per game on every game all the time – that gets boring and you do something crazy like parlay or tease games that you have already bet on – just to add spice to your day or betting session, I have been there myself.  I could go on forever talking about this subject but until you get to the point that you no longer want to pay your bookie every week, you probably are not willing to listen or change your habits.

Things to consider:

A) Why do I bet? I start the week off hot and lose on the weekends – too many games to choose from I guess?

B) Making a small profit is that better than losing any amount of money?

C) Why did I bet that game?  I already had enough action for the day!

D) I told myself no more parlays or teasers, If I had just played them all straight I would have profited this week!

E) That handicapper everyone bragged about that had a 7-0 Saturday … well I bought his Sunday plays and went 1-5 … I got to find someone better!

F) Next week I’m going to only bet the games I really like!

 

Ok now that is a list that could go on forever but you get the point and we all have said and done some or all those things.  In closing you have to stay disciplined always remember there will be another day and another game out there.  Understand the importance of getting the best lines possible.  Find a money management system and stick to it for a while and if you do choose to use a handicapper – make sure he or she is a monitored service not a salesman only and stick around awhile give them a chance to prove themselves before jumping on someone else – just because they are hot at that moment.  Sports betting is a marathon not a sprint.

www.hotcappersreport.com

 

Nick Saban – Oklahoma st – BCS

First off I want to congratulate Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the BCS National Championship over LSU.  Seems to me the talking heads and bitter coaches around the country even after they watched the game still just do not get it.  What I mean is for one example the comments made by Oklahoma st head coach Mike Gundy, as he stated “we would have throwed it 50 times and we would have scored”.  Now it may just be me but is that a sucker punch at LSU or Alabama or both?  The way I see it, the comment has to be toward LSU, because Alabama put up 21 points in a 21-0 win.  Now if Gundy’s comments was geared to Alabama, my question is why?  See for 44 days we have all heard Gundy and others say the tide had their shot and did not deserve to be there, so if Alabama did not deserve to be there, I guess Gundy was saying the game should have been LSU vs. Oklahoma st. right?  But here is my point, after 44 days of putting the tide down and everyone telling LSU how great they were for being undefeated it was time to play.  Even hours going into the game some AP voters were saying “even if Alabama wins a close one we will vote LSU AP champions”.  But once again the game still had to be played.  After the shutout win, you would think some of the people who was talking a big game would show some humility and just stay quite.  The AP did the right thing awarding the Crimson Tide the AP title, the talking heads do what they do best jumped on a front-runner and reported how dominate the tide was, but guess who had to open his mouth once again?  Yes Mike Gundy.  Well Mike you also made the comment that the big talk is always pitting a SEC defense vs. a Big 12 offense and saying that would be the only way to see how good a team was.  Well once again Mike you could have done a little research and seen where that has already happened three times.  In 2004 LSU beat Oklahoma, in 2009 Florida beat Oklahoma and in 2010 Alabama beat Texas.  Enough proof Mike?  probably not but all of this could have been avoided if you and the Cowboys would have just won by 1 point as a 28.5pt favorite against Iowa state, you see Mike it was your team that gave Alabama another shot.  Thanks Mike.

BSC has been running the show since 1999 in determining who plays for the National Championship.  The BCS always pits #1 vs. #2.  And yes this year was no different, so Oregon, Boise st, Stanford, Wisconsin and yes you Oklahoma st had your shot at #2 but failed to finish.  Why should this year been #1 vs. #4 or #1 vs. #3 ETC…?  The answer is it should not have been and like it or not the BCS put #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama all other points should be mute.

Finishing is something you hear Nick Saban talk about all the time.  See Nick Saban knows how to finish the Big Games, Nick now has 3 BCS National Championships with two different schools.  Nick Saban never gets on the air and complains about where his team should be ranked after a loss, he just goes back to work and does his thing.  Today listening to a sports radio show the guess was sports motivational speaker Dr. Kevin Elko, Dr. Elko has been doing motivational speeches for coach Saban’s teams in all three National Championship games and said this was the most relaxed he had ever seen Saban go into a game.  Nick Saban let all the talking heads do their doubting, let all the coaches that messed their shot at the big game up do their whining, let LSU continue to see themselves as the #1 team in Nation and gloat over a 9-6 OT win in November all the while he continued to work and his team worked, no suspensions as you always hear about when teams visit the Big Easy they just worked and worked hard.  See the one thing that you guy’s need to see is that championships are not won in November they are won in January.

Picks up daily at www.hotcappersreport.com

New * Rating System

I am always open to change and one of the toughest things to do as a handicapper is not always making the tough decisions on picking the games, it to me is money management. 

At one time I was one of the purest and always worked for the high winning percentage and made all wagers for the same amount just hoping to win over 53% of my bets.  As the years went on the game has changed, the players are smarter and the odds makers are smarter.  The usual -3 (-110) is now at times -3 (-120) and the -7 (-110) at times now can be -7 (-125) and so on.  Making the reachable 53%  has showed less and less profit as the years went on.

I have toyed with many different systems to make the wagers equal more to adjust to the extra juice we are now forced to play with.  But let’s get real, how many guys play a game for 500* units or like some of the guys 100,000* per unit games?

I have put together a new system that counts * units for wins and takes away * units with the vig but in a simple but yet realistic format.

I have an example of yesterdays card to show exactly how this system works:

30* Houston Texans -4 (Winner) +30

90* Over 38 Bengals/Texans (Winner) +90

45* New Orleans Saints -10.5 (Winner) +45

85* Over 60 Saints/Lions (Winner) +85

55* SMU -4 (Winner) +55

80* Over 47 SMU/Pitt (Lost) -88

Notice first the record was 5-1 for 83% and 83% would have won you money no matter what system you used.  To calculate how well we did on the money side, all you do is some simple math:

30+90+45+85+55 = +305

80+8 (vig) = -88

+305-88 = +217

Ok you all get that part, but the question I get is “how much money should 1* equal?  That is something you will have to decide.  If you are a small player for example $1 per star (*) would have netted you +$217 on the games.  If you wanted to go $100 per (*) the same games would had netted you +$21,700.  But let’s get real no one should go $100 per (*) but that is the math and those are the results.  My best advise to you is to sit down with a piece of paper and calculator and factor in what percent of your bankroll you are willing to risk versus the amount of plays I have for that card and find out a system that will work for you based on my rating system.

As far as I know this is the only format of its kind used by a sports service and I hope that all of you find this interesting and useful.  Underground Sports Connection will continue to roll with the times and try to stay on top of the game.

Find all the plays daily at www.hotcappersreport.com

 

 

Penn states new Coach

Why all the fuss about Penn states new coach?  I mean I know Joe Paterno was a legend but let’s be honest who did they really think they were going to get?  Bill O’ Brien will take over this program after his season is over at New England and from hearing his press conference, I feel he will do a good job with the hand he was dealt.  IMO the entire program has to be cleaned out from top to bottom and be rebuilt from the ground up.  It disturbs me that people can be so selfish about a football program and care so little for the bigger picture of this scandal.  Also IMO Penn st. had to get away from the good ol’ boy system and bring in someone who has no ties with the programs past.

Bill O’ Brien has a temper and is a hard-working coach from what I have heard and read.  His sideline argument with Tom Brady was seen over and over after an interception thrown by Brady on national television.  Also reports have been out there that a few years ago prior to his release, Randy Moss and O’ Brien got into a locker room comfortation that had to be boke up by several of the Patriots.  What does this have to do with Penn st?  Nothing really – just shows Bill O’ Brien has passion and will work hard to win games and winning games is what Penn st needs to get back to where they thought they were.

 

Not only do I have compassion for the children involved in the Jerry Sandusky scandal, but I also have compassion for the Penn st players both past, present and future.  They will always be categorized with all the bad from Penn st.  And winning will be the only positive these kids can get from the program in the future and I believe Bill O’ Brien will give them a firm foundation and a solid starting point that they so badly need and deserve.

 

Sometimes the good ol’ boys just need to be let go and you need a fresh start and maybe this will be exactly what Penn st needs.

PS. get all my opinions on the NFL playoff games at www.hotcappersreport.com

 

NFL Wilcard Weekend…

I love this time of the season as you see who really wants these games and it separates contenders from pretenders.  Just looking back to last years wildcard weekend it appeared on paper that the Seattle Seahawks did not belong in the playoffs as they faced the New Orleans Saints, in a very exciting game we saw why the cliché “that’s why you play the games” is so true as the Seahawks upset the Saints 41-36.  We also witnessed another heavily favored team go down in the wildcard round as the New York Jets downed the Indianapolis Colts 17-16.  And of course you always see a game or two that are not as close and sometimes leaves you scratching your head as to why you were on the wrong side, such as the Ravens downing KC 30-7 and Green Bay beating the Eagles 21-16.

This year we have only one team returning to the wildcard round from last years four teams and that is the New Orleans Saints but this time they have to face a very hungry and surprising playoff team in the Detroit Lions.  Five of last years eight wildcard weekend teams did not make this years playoffs in any fashion.  Baltimore & defending Super Bowl champions the Green Bay Packers return this year to the playoffs, but not in the wildcard round as both teams have first round byes.  Three other teams Steelers, Falcons & Patriots all return to the playoffs this year and the Patriots are the only one of the three that return this year with a first round bye.  As mentioned earlier the Lions make the playoffs as a team that did not participate last year joining them as new playoff teams are the Broncos, Bengals, Texans & Giants.

Teams that obviously thought that they would get back to the playoffs this year after their exit last year that did not make the cut are Seattle, Colts, Eagles, Bears & Jets.  So five teams failed to make it back and five new ones took their spots.

Check in to my website as I break down all of this years playoff matchups and the Super Bowl.  I have a great offer going where you can get all the playoffs games, all rounds and the Super Bowl for just $55 so check it out and get on the list by going to www.hotcappersreport.com

 

2012 Bowl Games

The first games of the new year is always a good time to be a football fan and the lineup for Monday should not disappoint as there are six very good and interesting match-ups.

Penn st – Houston:  a classic defense vs offense type of game also a game that features both team having major coaching changes and a game that has had a lot of off the field distractions.

Michigan st – Georgia: Michigan st played some great football in 2011 as they were responsible for knocking off then unbeaten Wisconsin in one of the most exciting games of the year.  Georgia on the hand started off bad, but went on a major run and at point of the 2011 season you could argue they were playing some of the best football in the nation.  Reaching the SEC championship game for the first time in years, has to have the Georgia faithful excited for what is to come in 2012.

Nebraska – South Carolina: Nebraska at times showed they could play with anyone in the nation and other times looked very bad.  The same can be said for South Carolina, this could be the most overlooked game of the day and may be a fight to the finish.

Florida – Ohio st:  I’m looking forward to this one, once again both teams have many different coaching changes to deal with going into the game.  Ohio st is about to face probation for a few years limiting scholarships and facing a bowl ban for the upcoming year.  Florida is very young and I feel never really put together a complete four quarters of football all season multiplied by injuries, would be interesting to see them healthy and playing a complete game.

Wisconsin – Oregon:  This game has the makings of being the game of the day.  This is a classic Rose Bowl involving two teams that want this game very badly.  Wisconsin at one point was the hottest team in CFB before their loss to Michigan st and Oregon was wrote off early as they lost the opening game vs. LSU, but we all know how good LSU is.  Oregon has to be the fastest team in CFB and the offense when clicking can be very hard to defend.  Wisconsin’s mixture of the run and pass also keeps teams off-balance, this game should go down to the wire too.

Stanford – Oklahoma st:  This game needs no build up and it should be as advertised.  A great game to close out a great day of football.  Two teams that were very much in the hunt all season long and both teams suffered one slip up apiece.  Neither of these teams wants to end this season on a loss.  I could see this game coming down to what defense makes the most key stops as both offenses should run like well oiled machines.

I have all six plays up and ready at www.hotcappersreport.com